Ok so now that i am relying on gambling for full time income i decided i need to keep a blog in order to keep myself disciplined and try to learn from mistakes that i make along the way. It is a bold decision but one that i feel is achievable with dedication to form study.
I will try to update daily the events that unfold on a regular basis. I think the key to gambling is learning to accept a loss. In my life i have been guilty of chasing and losing a fortune. These are harsh lessons to learn but the important thing is to learn from them and not make the same mistake again. I feel that i have done and now am a much more mature person to make a run at this.
I hope those who follow me will wish me well and try to support me through the dark days.
Michael
Sunday, 19 August 2012
Tuesday, 25 October 2011
Chepstow - 25th October
Today we have a nice card at Chepstow, this was transfeered from Taunton due to the very firm ground at that track. The going today should just about be perfect jumping ground.
In the first race i am keen on Daymar Bay to take this. Won a Lingfield bumper impressively an was a good second on hurdling debut last season, beaten by a subsequent winner. Likely to have grown and strenghtened during the summer this horse can improve again and is a good bet to do so. The main danger is the Paul Nicholls horse Prospect Wells owned by Graham and Andrea Wylie. 102 rated on the flat and sure to be schooled well this is a serious danger but i am going for that valuable experience of Daymar Bay.
In the 310 race i like the look of Digger Gets Lucky as an each way bet at around 12-1. A winner on thsi track on seasonal debut last year this horse has a decent record when fresh and on a course he clearly handles can get in the places. More known as a chaser these days it will be interesting to see whether this is just a blow out for the season ahead or the trainer trying to find a winning oppurtunity. At the prices it is worth taking the chance.
The novice chase half an hour later looks likely to be imformative for the future. Alfie Spinner is a horse i really like, tough and consistent he looks the type to be able to make an impact over fences. Red Harbour sets the standard and a good standard after his chase debut win but if i am right Alfie Spinner will be better that a 130 chaser this season and can take this contest on the way to better things.
The 510 race is a competitive handicap chase. I always like a front runner over fences at Chepstow and on that basis i am going to tip up Lord Singer as an ew alternative. This horse is a really super bold jumper and if he can get an uncontested lead i think this could be a very dangerous horse today. An ok if unspectacular record fresh and the trainer is in fine form at likely odds of 16-1 this remains a good price. We are likely to know our fate early on if hassled for the lead confidence would be reduced somewhat.
Finally in the bumper Barney Cool can defy a penalty to win this before embarking on a hurdling career. From the same family as the very useful Mr Cool this horse gave Mr McCoy a nice feel when winning at fontwell and the jockey was quoted as saying that this is a nice prospect. Unlikey to fail for fitness today and from leading connections this looks a nice type. As always in this type of race there are some nice types who will improve as the season goes on. However Barney Cool can put them to bed with a nice performance.
In the first race i am keen on Daymar Bay to take this. Won a Lingfield bumper impressively an was a good second on hurdling debut last season, beaten by a subsequent winner. Likely to have grown and strenghtened during the summer this horse can improve again and is a good bet to do so. The main danger is the Paul Nicholls horse Prospect Wells owned by Graham and Andrea Wylie. 102 rated on the flat and sure to be schooled well this is a serious danger but i am going for that valuable experience of Daymar Bay.
In the 310 race i like the look of Digger Gets Lucky as an each way bet at around 12-1. A winner on thsi track on seasonal debut last year this horse has a decent record when fresh and on a course he clearly handles can get in the places. More known as a chaser these days it will be interesting to see whether this is just a blow out for the season ahead or the trainer trying to find a winning oppurtunity. At the prices it is worth taking the chance.
The novice chase half an hour later looks likely to be imformative for the future. Alfie Spinner is a horse i really like, tough and consistent he looks the type to be able to make an impact over fences. Red Harbour sets the standard and a good standard after his chase debut win but if i am right Alfie Spinner will be better that a 130 chaser this season and can take this contest on the way to better things.
The 510 race is a competitive handicap chase. I always like a front runner over fences at Chepstow and on that basis i am going to tip up Lord Singer as an ew alternative. This horse is a really super bold jumper and if he can get an uncontested lead i think this could be a very dangerous horse today. An ok if unspectacular record fresh and the trainer is in fine form at likely odds of 16-1 this remains a good price. We are likely to know our fate early on if hassled for the lead confidence would be reduced somewhat.
Finally in the bumper Barney Cool can defy a penalty to win this before embarking on a hurdling career. From the same family as the very useful Mr Cool this horse gave Mr McCoy a nice feel when winning at fontwell and the jockey was quoted as saying that this is a nice prospect. Unlikey to fail for fitness today and from leading connections this looks a nice type. As always in this type of race there are some nice types who will improve as the season goes on. However Barney Cool can put them to bed with a nice performance.
Monday, 24 October 2011
Weekend Review
So an informative weekend has now passed. Good racing took place at both Aintree and Chepstow. So what have we learnt from thr weekends action.
Master Minded was hugely disappointing and there must be serious doubts about it for the rest of the campaign. Reported beforehand that he was in fine shape travelled well and jamp well in the main, he made a maistake 3 out and could never get on terms. The winner Albertas Run scrambled home from a horse rated 136 and no better than a good handicapper. Albertas Run will benefit from this run and this shows us he is still in decent form. However judging this race from a form perspective is difficult and it remains to be seen what this race tells us.
Edgardo Sol grabbed all the headlines for the wrong reasons. Gritty and brave under a superb Ruby Walsh ride the jockey fell foul to the rules and got banned for 5 days. Many felt this was harsh and i agree - the rules have to change. I dont think there is a single person who saw this race thought that the winner was getting beat up by the whip. My fancy Haventgotascoobydoo was just getting intot he race when making a mistake and coming to grief. If none the worse for this fall remains a horse open to improvement and i still believe this could be a serious animal.
As for Hazy Toms race i cant sum it up better than the racing post report. HAZY TOM maintained his unbeatenrecord on this switch to hurdling, but had to pull out all the stops to do so. He hit the first flight and proved free off the moderate pace, but continued to lack fluency even as the pace lifted. His class saw him home on the run-in, though, and there´severy chance this trip was too short for him. It will be very interesting to see how he fares under a penalty.
Harry The Viking won the first race at Chepstow and the first two pulled well clear suggesting that this was a decent performance. Reported to be going over fences next this horse looks one to follow. Although Dualla Lord was baten in the second division of this race he travelled like the best horse in the race and for me was found out due to lack of fitness on his first run of the season. Expect this to make amends soon.
A competitive edition of a Grade 2 novice hurdle which has been won by some smart performers over the years. This renewal looked up to scratch on paper and we could well have seen a future star in FINGAL BAY, who was really impressive on this hurdlesdebut.
Winner of an Exeter bumper on his sole previous sighting, the five-year-old jumped slickly for a debutant and showed in front down the far side. Shaken up between the last two flights, he came away for a ready success and can certainly improveon the bare form with the experience behind him.
The Hobbs team won this race in 2001 and 2002 and had sent out several seconds in it since, including subsequent Arkle winner Captain Chris last year. Fingal Bay could well have Cheltenham aspirations too, although there is a long way to go until March. He needs a bit of cut in the ground.
Fingal Bay for me is a star in the making and on this performance he is one to follow and perhaps back ante post for Cheltenham.
Tatianio returned to form and jamp in the main very well. He put a couple of class horses to bed here and if allowed to dominate at the head of the field will be a dangerous horse for any race he turns up in.
On Sunday we saw Champion Court win the useful novice chase, this race has been won by some star performers over the years but Champion Court will have to jump alot better if he is to have a live chance at Cheltenham in March.
BARBATOS, who already had an official mark of 121, has plenty of substance and went about winning in willing style. Horses that have gone onto be useful chasers have won this novice in the past like Massasoit and Wichita Lineman, and given this grey´s frame, one would imagine that connections hope he´ll develop in a similar way.
The horse i was most looking forward to watching over the weekend was Royal Guardsman. Looking at the bare result you would think this was a disappointing run, however having watched the race a few times i am a bit more positive. He took a pull early on and was then forced to travel wide. He loomed up looking a threat and travelled really well however found nothing and faded. The excuse comes from the jockey who is believed to have hit the horse unintentially over the head a few times. I would not give up on this one yet and look forward to better next time.
This weekend a quality field has been declared for the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby. I have to say i have fond memories of Ollie Magern running them ragged round the track. One year in particular his jumping kept him in it and was clear approcaching the last. He then got tired and was collared close home. Lets hope for another exciting race come Saturday.
Master Minded was hugely disappointing and there must be serious doubts about it for the rest of the campaign. Reported beforehand that he was in fine shape travelled well and jamp well in the main, he made a maistake 3 out and could never get on terms. The winner Albertas Run scrambled home from a horse rated 136 and no better than a good handicapper. Albertas Run will benefit from this run and this shows us he is still in decent form. However judging this race from a form perspective is difficult and it remains to be seen what this race tells us.
Edgardo Sol grabbed all the headlines for the wrong reasons. Gritty and brave under a superb Ruby Walsh ride the jockey fell foul to the rules and got banned for 5 days. Many felt this was harsh and i agree - the rules have to change. I dont think there is a single person who saw this race thought that the winner was getting beat up by the whip. My fancy Haventgotascoobydoo was just getting intot he race when making a mistake and coming to grief. If none the worse for this fall remains a horse open to improvement and i still believe this could be a serious animal.
As for Hazy Toms race i cant sum it up better than the racing post report. HAZY TOM maintained his unbeatenrecord on this switch to hurdling, but had to pull out all the stops to do so. He hit the first flight and proved free off the moderate pace, but continued to lack fluency even as the pace lifted. His class saw him home on the run-in, though, and there´severy chance this trip was too short for him. It will be very interesting to see how he fares under a penalty.
Harry The Viking won the first race at Chepstow and the first two pulled well clear suggesting that this was a decent performance. Reported to be going over fences next this horse looks one to follow. Although Dualla Lord was baten in the second division of this race he travelled like the best horse in the race and for me was found out due to lack of fitness on his first run of the season. Expect this to make amends soon.
A competitive edition of a Grade 2 novice hurdle which has been won by some smart performers over the years. This renewal looked up to scratch on paper and we could well have seen a future star in FINGAL BAY, who was really impressive on this hurdlesdebut.
Winner of an Exeter bumper on his sole previous sighting, the five-year-old jumped slickly for a debutant and showed in front down the far side. Shaken up between the last two flights, he came away for a ready success and can certainly improveon the bare form with the experience behind him.
The Hobbs team won this race in 2001 and 2002 and had sent out several seconds in it since, including subsequent Arkle winner Captain Chris last year. Fingal Bay could well have Cheltenham aspirations too, although there is a long way to go until March. He needs a bit of cut in the ground.
Fingal Bay for me is a star in the making and on this performance he is one to follow and perhaps back ante post for Cheltenham.
Tatianio returned to form and jamp in the main very well. He put a couple of class horses to bed here and if allowed to dominate at the head of the field will be a dangerous horse for any race he turns up in.
On Sunday we saw Champion Court win the useful novice chase, this race has been won by some star performers over the years but Champion Court will have to jump alot better if he is to have a live chance at Cheltenham in March.
BARBATOS, who already had an official mark of 121, has plenty of substance and went about winning in willing style. Horses that have gone onto be useful chasers have won this novice in the past like Massasoit and Wichita Lineman, and given this grey´s frame, one would imagine that connections hope he´ll develop in a similar way.
The horse i was most looking forward to watching over the weekend was Royal Guardsman. Looking at the bare result you would think this was a disappointing run, however having watched the race a few times i am a bit more positive. He took a pull early on and was then forced to travel wide. He loomed up looking a threat and travelled really well however found nothing and faded. The excuse comes from the jockey who is believed to have hit the horse unintentially over the head a few times. I would not give up on this one yet and look forward to better next time.
This weekend a quality field has been declared for the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby. I have to say i have fond memories of Ollie Magern running them ragged round the track. One year in particular his jumping kept him in it and was clear approcaching the last. He then got tired and was collared close home. Lets hope for another exciting race come Saturday.
Thursday, 20 October 2011
Carlisle 20 October - Review
A dissapointing day in terms of selections. I could not have got the 220 more wrong. Sometimes in this game you have to hold your hands up and say you got it wrong and this was certainly a major misjudgement on my part. However i vow to learn from this and have worked this afternoon in determing where i went wrong.
I thought Vamizi was going to win 2 out but maybe lack of a run told in the end with the trainers horses improving for their 1st run this season. That said its alarming that this horse now has a string of placed efforts and no recent wins. I am prepared to give this another chance. My outside selection was a non runner.
The novice chase went to Frascati park who led from the front and won well in the end. He beat a useful couple of horses here and can go onto better things one would imagine.
Better days to come.
Carlisle 20 October
A cracking afternoons racing awaits at the cumbrian venue this afternoon and i hope it will be a profitable one.
Just watched Sivola De Sivola win the 1st race and my first impressions were if Oscar Davy had jumped the last it would have won. We will never know now but an unfortunate start to proceedings in some regards.
Hobbs will be hoping for better luck in the 2nd race with Ballyquin Queen. A race in which only 4 can be given a serious chance. This horse has shown ability in 3 bumper starts and encouragingly has stamina in his pedigree which is important on a track like Carlisle. Cape Dutch is the likely favourite but has yet to handle easy ground. The form of its recent win is open to debate and looks one to take on under a penalty today. A bigger threat could be the Nigel Twiston Davies runner Double Ross. Similar to the selection is making its hurdle debut today having raced in a bumper in Ireland. Joined a top yard and is open to alot of improvement. In summary the market leaders all have some room for improvement but for betting purposes i will lay Cape Dutch and back Ballquin Queen with a small bet on Double Ross.
We have to wait until the 355 for the next bet to run. This is a good quality 3m hcap chase and the selection is Lucinda Russels Vamizi. The trainer is in great form at present and this half brother to King Harald will love every yard of this trip. Reported to have summered well and a positive tweet earlier from Peter Scudamore all bode well. It is perhaps no surprise that this horse has been well punted all morning. A host of dangers here but one at a price to have a small ew bet on is Mohi Rahrere trained by Barry Leavy. An excellent record fresh this horse is returning from a 4 month lay off and if fresh is the time to catch this horse then it has the ability to go very close at a nice 20-1.
The 500 novice chase is the race i am most looking forward to. It is a no bet race for me but a must watch. Aikman, Bold Sir Brian and Frascati Park are quality horses and it will be interesting to see how they fare over fences.
Wednesday, 19 October 2011
Top 10 Horse's to follow 2011/2012
Good evening. I have not had an easy time picking just 10 horses to follow for the upcoming season. However after some consideration i have a list of 10 horses who i feel will be horses who will pay their way over the campaign.
Captain Chris - Phillip Hobbs - Had a fantastic season last year winning at both Cheltenham and Punchestown. The trainer is quoted as saying that the horse has enough speed for 2miles and feels it will also get a 3mile trip. Another exciting season beckons.
Cue Card - Colin Tizzard - Such an exciting horse. Very impressive when winning at Chepstow on its chasing debut and will improve when tackling better horses. Trainer feels he will stay 3 miles and a threat to one and all in the novice division this year.
Chablais - Nicky Henderson - Looked very classy at Kempton in january but the horse didnt take the race well and the trainer has given this one time to recover. Quoted as saying "he could be top class" he could be worth the wait this term.
Italian Master - Paul Nicholls - Owned by John Hales (One Man, Azertyuiop) had 1 start in a point in Ireland and went into a few notebooks. Now in the hands of the champion trainer the sky is the limit. This could be another superstar for Mr Hales.
Lovethehigherlaw - Willie Mullins - A winner at the punchestown festival in the bumper last season is preparing for a hurdle campaign this season. Expected to feature highly amongst the irish challenge for the festival and should pay its way over the season.
Montbazon - Alan King - An exciting horse, 2nd in the championship bumper at Aintree last season and a winner of the spring sales bumper at doncaster. Mr King has made no secret how highly he rates this horse and is likely to have 1 more run in a bumper before a hurdle campaign.
Peddlers Cross - Donald McCain - A very exciting recruit to the novice chase ranks this season. 2nd to the awesome Hurricane Fly in the champion hurdle this horse for me is the 1 they all have to beat in the arkle this season.
Royal Guardsman - Colin Tizzard - A lovely pedigree, this horse bolted up in a fontwell bumper at the end of last season. It would be asking alot for this to be as good as stable star Cue Card but this horse might be able to reach those hights this season.
Spirit Son - Nicky Henderson - Relished the step up to 2m 4f when slamming cue card at aintree. The trainer states this horse will be campaigned as a hurdler this season and is still open to improvement. May be able to give Big Bucks a race at the festival.
Sprinter Sacre - Nicky Henderson - A campaign over fences could be the making of this horse. Barry Geraghty has fallen in love with this horse and although the arkle promises to be a very competitive race i believe that this horse will rack up the wins during the season and could well turn out to be the dark horse of the field.
Captain Chris - Phillip Hobbs - Had a fantastic season last year winning at both Cheltenham and Punchestown. The trainer is quoted as saying that the horse has enough speed for 2miles and feels it will also get a 3mile trip. Another exciting season beckons.
Cue Card - Colin Tizzard - Such an exciting horse. Very impressive when winning at Chepstow on its chasing debut and will improve when tackling better horses. Trainer feels he will stay 3 miles and a threat to one and all in the novice division this year.
Chablais - Nicky Henderson - Looked very classy at Kempton in january but the horse didnt take the race well and the trainer has given this one time to recover. Quoted as saying "he could be top class" he could be worth the wait this term.
Italian Master - Paul Nicholls - Owned by John Hales (One Man, Azertyuiop) had 1 start in a point in Ireland and went into a few notebooks. Now in the hands of the champion trainer the sky is the limit. This could be another superstar for Mr Hales.
Lovethehigherlaw - Willie Mullins - A winner at the punchestown festival in the bumper last season is preparing for a hurdle campaign this season. Expected to feature highly amongst the irish challenge for the festival and should pay its way over the season.
Montbazon - Alan King - An exciting horse, 2nd in the championship bumper at Aintree last season and a winner of the spring sales bumper at doncaster. Mr King has made no secret how highly he rates this horse and is likely to have 1 more run in a bumper before a hurdle campaign.
Peddlers Cross - Donald McCain - A very exciting recruit to the novice chase ranks this season. 2nd to the awesome Hurricane Fly in the champion hurdle this horse for me is the 1 they all have to beat in the arkle this season.
Royal Guardsman - Colin Tizzard - A lovely pedigree, this horse bolted up in a fontwell bumper at the end of last season. It would be asking alot for this to be as good as stable star Cue Card but this horse might be able to reach those hights this season.
Spirit Son - Nicky Henderson - Relished the step up to 2m 4f when slamming cue card at aintree. The trainer states this horse will be campaigned as a hurdler this season and is still open to improvement. May be able to give Big Bucks a race at the festival.
Sprinter Sacre - Nicky Henderson - A campaign over fences could be the making of this horse. Barry Geraghty has fallen in love with this horse and although the arkle promises to be a very competitive race i believe that this horse will rack up the wins during the season and could well turn out to be the dark horse of the field.
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